Corona Virus: How did people know for years that an outbreak like covid 19 would occur?

It could not have been easier to estimate the global outbreak of the Coronavirus, known as COVID 19. I am making this claim based on my reporting.

In October 2019, I witnessed a simulation or parable about a simulated global outbreak of the Coronavirus. Similarly, in the spring of 2017, I wrote an article for Time Magazine on the same topic. The cover of the magazine was written: ‘Warning: the world is not ready for another global outbreak.’

That doesn’t mean I was more burdened with others. In the past fifteen years, there have been many articles and articles about a global outbreak that warned that a new outbreak affecting our respiratory system is about to spread.

Just didn’t know when? At BBC Futures in 2018, we wrote that a global outbreak of the flu is just a matter of time and that there may be millions of undetected viruses in the world.

One expert told us, ‘I think the next global outbreak is more likely to be spread by a new virus.’

In 2019, the US Department of Health and Human Services conducted a global outbreak called “Crimson Congestion”, envisioning a global outbreak of the flu that began throughout China. Will engulf the world. The parable predicted that the disease alone would cause 500,000 deaths in the United States.

By April 6, more than 12 million people around the world had been infected with COVID Ninthin, while the death toll had reached 70,000, and the virus had spread to every continent except Antarctica. In fact, before the World Health Organization announced on March 11, it had become a global epidemic. We should have guessed that already.

Coved Nintendo is the return of an old and known enemy. Throughout history, there have been as many deaths as anything from viruses, bacteria and parasites. Not so many people have been killed by natural disasters like earthquakes and not because of wars.

Mass murderer

Take the example of mosquito-borne malaria. It has been chasing humans for thousands of years, and although its fatalities have dropped significantly over the past twenty years, it still causes five million deaths per year.

Epidemics have become mass murderers in the last thousand years, and we cannot imagine the scale of the deaths caused by them today in the era of coronavirus.

In the sixth century CE, the Justinian plague killed about five million people, which was probably half the world’s population at that time. Then in the 14th century, a plague called Black Death or Black Death killed 20 million people.

Twenty-three million deaths were caused by smallpox in the 20th century, though an effective and effective world vaccine against the disease was available since 1796.

Five to ten million people died as a result of the global outbreak of influenza in 1918, more than the number of casualties in the First World War. One out of every three people on earth was affected by the outbreak.

The global HIV epidemic still exists, and there is no vaccine. It is estimated that HIV has killed 30 million people, while more than half a million people are suffering from it, which is increasing day by day.

These figures are surprising because outbreaks are not mentioned in the history lessons. While not so old, these were the harsh facts of life. Monuments to those suffering from this disease are rarely made.

The historian Alfred Crosby wrote the book “America’s Forgotten Pandemic” on the outbreak of the flu in 1918. He was inspired to write this book when he found out that the average age had dropped from 51 years to 39 years in 1917 in the United States. The reason for this decline was a virus that did not exceed 120 nanometers in size (a nanometer is one-billionth of a meter).

Virus Capacity

Germs become collective killers because they have the potential to rapidly grow their population. This difference makes them different from the other dangers posed to humans. Each moving bullet has a target and a target. Every natural disaster is limited to one region or region, e.g. the earthquake in China will not directly affect the UK.

But when a virus, such as a coronavirus, is infected, the infected person’s body becomes a virus-producing factory. However, bacteria have the potential to grow when favourable environments arrive.

Symptoms caused by an infectious bacterium, such as sneezing, cough or blood clotting, help to make it the next and then the next host. This infectious potential of the virus is measured in R0, that is, how many people have the ability to infect. (Imperial College London estimates the R0 of this new coronavirus from 1.5 to 3.5.) And humans travel with them since they range from shaking hands to sexual intimacy.

It is not surprising that armies have long sought to use the disease as a weapon. It is also not surprising that more soldiers are killed by diseases than combat targets. The germ is an inexpensive weapon that goes hunting through its prey.

The risk of disease and some other facts had impeded human development and expansion. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the average world age was only twenty-nine years. The reason was not that people could not survive for long, but many died due to childhood illnesses, complications during maternity, or wound healing.

The balance of the urban population was sustained only by the migration from the countryside. These migrants used to replace the victims of the disease in the cities. Hygiene principles, the invention of vaccines and antibiotics have changed this balance.

This victory enlightened us from the modern world in which we are living today.

Better covenant

It will be difficult to understand how quickly we see the victory in this war. I may have been infected with the flu or the 1919 flu. I had spent my childhood before the discovery of my heart and penicillin. My parents were born in 1954, before the invention of the polio vaccine.

In today’s developing and developing world, we are more likely to die from an infectious disease, such as cancer, heart disease, etc. than infectious disease. The reduction of pandemic diseases is clear evidence that life on earth has improved.

Mark Lipschich is from the Harvard TH China School of Public Health in Boston, USA, and is considered to be the leading infectious disease specialist. When I met him in preparation for my book in 2018, he thought the danger of a major pandemic was real for the world.

They showed me a chart detailing the pandemic outbreaks in the United States during the 20th century.

According to the chart, deaths from pandemic diseases were drastically reduced. In 1900 pandemic outbreaks killed eight hundred out of a million people, while in the last years of this century only sixty million were killed.

Only in 1918 did the epidemic rise in time due to pandemic flu and AIDS in the 1980s. Klipsch points out that ‘deaths from infectious diseases have decreased by one per cent each year, which continued until the end of the century.’

The matter did not end here

That was good news. But the bad news is that Cody Nintendo has reminded us that pandemic diseases aren’t over yet. In fact, new pandemics have emerged, such as SARS, HIV, and COVID NINETEEN, which have increased fourfold over the past century. Only in 1980 did the outbreak of epidemic triple.

There are several reasons for this increase. One is that the world population has doubled in the last 50 years, which means that more people are available to suffer from infectious diseases and then transmit these outbreaks to others. Today, we have more cattle than the last ten thousand years and are a means of transmitting the virus to humans.

As Cody Nintendo has proven, the integrated global economy is also a cause for pandemic diseases, and critical because of the long and interconnected chain of goods shipments, as the disruption caused by pandemic diseases is huge. Can easily create flow.

The ability to reach from one location to another within just twenty hours and travel anywhere with disinfected goods increases the risk of infectious diseases. In the past, long-term travel was more likely to kill such germs.

Despite advances against pandemic diseases, our growth has made us more vulnerable to germs, which grow four million times faster than humans.

Since the discovery of penicillin in 1928, millions of lives have been saved, but bacterial resistance to antibiotics is also on the rise. Doctors see this as a major threat to public health globally. According to a study in Europe alone in 2018, thirty-three thousand people died of diseases whose antibiotics have been ineffective.

In 2013, the World Bank estimated that an outbreak like the flu of 1918 could damage today’s integrated global economy by four trillion dollars – $ 40 trillion. According to preliminary estimates, more than $ 10 trillion was lost due to COVID Nineteen.

Covent Nintendo has stepped out of a modern and densely populated city in China and engulfed the world within a month. Scientists are trying to understand the virus. But to prevent it immediately, we could do nothing except try to stop the transmission of the virus by locking up economic and social activities in the global capitalist system. If communication and entertainment were put aside on the internet and mobile, we did what our ancestors did in the days of the outbreak.

Even though there was a prediction of an outbreak like Coved 19, we did not take any measures to remedy it.

We have to be prepared to deal with any such danger in the future. This risk is real, and we have to face it all the time. Therefore, it is important that we pay more attention to global health institutions, increase their capacity. The World Health Organization’s budget, which is responsible for the health of 7 billion people, is less than any major US hospital.

We have to increase the vaccine capacity, and pharmaceutical companies have to believe that their investment will not sink in the event of an outbreak.

One of the major problems is our memory. After an outbreak like SARS or Ebola, politicians make many promises but then forget about them and do not provide proper financial support.

As I hope, this will not be the case with COVID 19. We must do everything we can to defeat this epidemic, and make sure that the outbreak is not a foretaste of events to come.

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